Doug Stephens is one of the world’s foremost retail industry futurists. His intellectual work and creativity have influenced many of the most widely known international retailers, agencies and brands including Walmart, Google, L’Oréal, BMW, and Louis Vuitton. Prior to founding the consultancy Retail Prophet, Doug spent over 20 years in the retail industry, holding senior international leadership roles.
Doug is the author of three internationally bestselling books: Resurrecting Retail: The Future of Business in a Post Pandemic World (2021), Reengineering Retail: The Future of Selling in a Post-Digital World (2017) and The Retail Revival: Re-Imagining Business for the New Age of Consumerism (2013). He sits on multiple corporate and academic advisory boards. His unique perspectives on retailing, business, and consumer behavior have been featured in many of the world’s leading publications and media outlets including The New York Times, BBC, TechCrunch, The Wall Street Journal and Fast Company.
Recently, in an exclusive interview with CIO Magazine, Doug shared his professional trajectory, insights on the most significant trends shaping the future of retail, significant career milestones, favorite quote, future plans, words of wisdom, and much more. The following excerpts are taken from the interview.
Hi Doug. Could you share your journey to becoming an expert in your current position?
I got into retail in my late 20’s beginning on the front lines and began moving vertically and laterally through a number of retail companies in both Canada and the United States. Over the course of over 20 years, I was fortunate to be exposed to almost every work stream and discipline in retail from training and development, operations management and marketing through to franchise sales and eventually General Management.
One overarching observation I formed about the retail industry was that it was critically short-sighted in its outlook. So, in 2009 in the midst of unprecedented economic, social, technological upheaval I left corporate to establish my own consultancy, Retail Prophet, with the goal of focussing exclusively on how all of these historic changes would shape the industry in the years and decades to come.
Since that time, I’ve written three books on the future of retail, some of which have been translated into multiple languages. I’ve also had the good fortune to consult to many of the world’s most highly regarded brands and spoken to groups on every continent except Antarctica!
What are the most significant trends shaping the future of retail, and how will they impact the industry?
I believe that we are seeing two monumental shifts taking place in the retail industry today. The first is an historic trading of roles between digital media and physical stores, in which digital media is, in essence becoming “the store”. Digital media is how we browse, gather information, see what’s trending and increasingly buy the things we need. Whether it’s a website, TikTok post, Instagram story or any other media, it’s where we’re discovering and buying products today. The very fact that 74% of consumers turn to Amazon first when considering a purchase confirms this. Some might argue this means physical retail will become unnecessary, but I disagree. I believe that physical stores are transitioning to become a media channel. And not just a media channel but also the most powerful and measurable media channel a brand has at its disposal.
The second is that we are coming to the end of an era in retail whereby the traditional pillars of competitive advantage (selection, convenience, price, service etc.) are giving way. They are going to be replaced by new, asymmetrical advantages. For example, if someone had told you in 1990 that by 2024 competitive advantage in retail would mean a company producing its own hydrogen fuel, you’d have thought they were crazy. But today, Amazon is doing just that. Producing its own hydrogen to power forklifts and other machinery in its Aurora Colorado facility. Not only will the move help them meet carbon reduction goals, it’s also a bet that within a decade hydrogen will be cheaper than carbon-based fuels. Most retail companies today simply aren’t thinking like this.
How will technology, such as AI and AR, continue to transform the retail experience?
The best analogy I can think of for how AI will transform retail is how the advent of electricity shaped modern society. AI will become an ingredient in just about every other technology, system or platform that retailers use. Like electricity it will be powering so many aspects of our lives we’ll be challenged to get by without it. As for Augmented Reality, it’s a wonderful tool that has a wide range of uses, from virtual try-ons of apparel products to assistance in navigating retail spaces. But like any tool it’s important that it not be used gratuitously and only where it yields some clear benefit for the consumer.
What role will sustainability play in shaping the future of retail, and how can companies prioritize eco-friendliness?
The hard truth is that consumers don’t prioritize sustainability and neither do most retail companies. Most consumers want what they want at an affordable price and corporations just want to sell lots of stuff and make their numbers. That’s the reality. However, the real pressure for companies to become sustainable is coming from the institutional investment community. Investors are demanding information from companies on their sustainability and labour practices so that they can make informed decisions with respect to where they put their capital. Environmental damage, unfair labour practices, and other corporate governance issues represent risks to capital that investors are increasingly unprepared to tolerate. So, if companies want investment, they’re having to get their houses in order as it applies to ESG.
What has been your most career-defining moment that you are proud of?
I’ve had so many memorable experiences, but I’d have to say seeing my first book sitting on a bookstore shelf alongside business authors who I have such great respect for, was sort of transformational for me.
If you could have a one-hour meeting with someone famous who is alive, who would it be and why?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Primarily because I believe at some point in history she’ll become President of the United States. But more importantly because I think she represents a vision for the future that will soon become non-negotiable for both individuals and businesses. She’s young, brilliant and I believe really in touch with the cultural and economic zeitgeist that’s causing so much suffering in the world today.
Is there a particular person you are grateful for who helped get you to where you are?
My wife Meredith. I simply could not have accomplished what I have without her love, encouragement and support.
How do you keep your mind healthy and stay resilient? And how do you motivate your team?
I love music and try to play guitar everyday when I’m home. I find music really activates my creativity and acuity. I also try to keep physically fit, especially when I’m doing a lot of travelling. Beyond that, I try to expose myself to a wide range of topics from pop culture, philosophy and technology to politics, science and economics. The best thing I can give to my clients is a wide and broadly informed lens to see the world through. Ultimately consumer behavior is a reflection of everything we as a society are exposed to, so the more in touch you can be with what’s happening, the more likely it is that you’ll understand what’s motivating consumers.
What is your favorite quote?
I have a few but one is, “If you can dream it, you can do it.” – Walt Disney
Where do you see yourself in the next 5 years?
My hope is to be touring a new book on the future of competitive advantage in business.
What advice would you give to anyone starting out on their career in your industry?
Find something (a point of view, belief or area of work) to become obsessive about. Obsession is the only thing that will push you to study, think and work longer and harder than your competitors. Obsession is what will power you though failure. And it is obsession that will almost certainly drive your success to heights you didn’t imagine being possible.